- Another Year
- Black Swan
- The King's Speech
- True Grit (*so excited*)
- Blue Valentine (ditto. Ok, I am still susceptible to hype and I just want to see what all the bloggers are going on about)
- Another Year
- Winter's Bone (is that available on DVD?)
- Animal Kingdom
- How To Train Your Dragon
- The Fighter
- Made in Dagenham
- Somewhere
That's twelve movies to watch before Oscar nominations come in. Bring it!
But GOD they should just really spread the wealth when it comes to December releases. I firmly believe that part of the Academy's low-ratings problem stems from the fact that most people just haven't had a chance to watch half of the nominated movies before the Oscars come. All of the big contenders come out within a span of six weeks - True Grit, Black Swan, The Fighter, Somewhere, Blue Valentine, King's Speech - and most people go to the theaters about once a month. That's just ridiculous. Especially when there was that latent September-November period when, with the exception of The Social Network, everyone around me was complaining that "there are no interesting movies out right now". It would have been so much better if you had options like The King's Speech or True Grit around then, instead of cramming half a dozen movies into a rushed holiday season where they end up simultaneously fighting for (and ultimately splitting) the attention. Most people DON'T watch a movie on its opening weekend, and then hey - by the next weekend, some more interesting movie has come out. And then the next one, and the next one, until the original movie is relegated to future-DVD status.
And apparently this is AMPAS' new publicity technique - for a host, put up the most bizarre pairing as possible so that people will be enticed to tune in out of sheer curiosity. This is not going to go well. Really. Just because James Franco gives sexy and occasionally appealing performances does not mean that he translates to proper host material. He just lacks that common touch. I mean, have you seen that man on talk shows? Awwwkward. Screw "thinking out of the box", that doesn't mean crap if the decision is ultimately misguided.
That aside, I have't been able to resist my own bout of Oscar predictions:
*= locks
Best Actor:
*Jesse Eisenberg - The Social Network
*Colin Firth - The King's Speech
*James Franco - 127 Hours
Robert Duvall - Get Low
Ryan Gosling - Blue Valentine
Best Actress:
*Annette Bening - The Kids Are All Right
*Natalie Portman - Black Swan
Nicole Kidman - Rabbit Hole
Lesley Manville - Another Year
Michelle Williams - Blue Valentine
Best Supporting Actor:
*Christian Bale - The Fighter ****
*Geoffrey Rush - The King's Speech
*Mark Ruffalo - The Kids Are All Right
Andrew Garfield - The Social Network
The last slot is truly a tossup. A small, but extremely insistent regiment of fans for John Hawkes in Winter's Bone has been steadily growing louder, and though these kind of performances don't usually get much leeway til much later during awards season, Oscars has noticed in the past (examples: Michael Shannon in Revolutionary Road and Hal Holbrook for Into the Wild). Especially when that kind of buzz is so loud for an unknown actor. Great kudos. Then there's the oft-shunned Sam Rockwell, who got fantastic reviews for "Conviction" and surely will earn sympathy notice after being shut out for "Moon" last year. Then there's Guy Pearce, who despite Rush getting all the preconceived worship, was singled out in nearly every review I've read of "The King's Speech". The poor guy's like Gary Oldman 2.0. There's also rising support for Matt Damon in "True Grit", though we'll have to see how it goes. He'll have to be a real charismatic sonuvabitch to steal the buzz from others.
This is truly the year of the paid-dues-actor: Nearly all the contenders for Supporting Actor, with the exception of Geoffrey Rush and Andrew Garfield, have been hailed as "underrated", solid, consistently interesting actors who have held a mix of lead-supporting roles and never gotten any recognition from any of the major award tents.
**** Out of all of the nominees, Bale's is probably the one whose nomination locked was guaranteed from hype levels of epic proportions. I mean, not that many people have even seen it yet. But just about everyone, including the lousy Oscar bloggers, have been chiming about "how he's going to win fo sho" and that he will definitely knock it out of the park based on this little random review from back in March, despite the fact that more mixed reviews came out later. Not be nominated - win. And unbelievably, he did win the NBR award a few days ago, which probably means that he's a lock. I don't believe he'll win, though. Ok, ok, right now it looks as if it's his to lose.
Best Supporting Actress:
*Helena-Bonham Carter - The King's Speech (finalllllly!)
*Jacki Weaver - Animal Kingdom
*Amy Adams - The Fighter
*Melissa Leo - The Fighter
????
This is probably the weakest field yet. All four are locks by default. There are rumors that Lesley Manville may be campaigned for Best Supporting Actress, which would probably succeed, especially since the Best Actress field is getting so crowded. Also: the year of the preteen actress. All the fanboys want Chloe Moretz to be nominated for Kick-Ass (not happening, dudes), and Elle Fanning for Somewhere and Hailee Steinfeld for True Grit shouldn't be ruled out. Peter Travers called Hailee Steinfeld "a star" in his True Grit Twitter rave but obviously, the last thing you want to do is take Peter "Hallelujah" Travers' word for granted. I swear studios should start paying him publicity fees for the amount of buzz he generates from his reviews (which somehow manages to come out weeks before everybody else's).
Updates: Jacki Weaver is definitely a lock, and possibly the frontrunner. Jennifer Lawrence's buzz for Best Actress is getting louder.
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